The recent statistics from the U.S. Department of State reveal a significant decrease in the issuance of F-1 and J-1 student visas, raising concerns about the future of international student enrollment in American universities. With 12,689 fewer F-1 visas issued in May 2025 compared to the same month last year, this trend could indicate a challenging academic year ahead for institutions reliant on international students.
According to the latest data released by the State Department, there has been a staggering 22 percent reduction in F-1 visas globally, alongside a 13 percent drop in J-1 visas. These figures serve as a crucial indicator of potential shifts in international student demographics, although they do not provide a complete picture of the situation, as noted by Rachel Banks, a senior director at an association dedicated to international education.
“The real impact on enrollment will only become clear after September, when we can assess the actual number of students who arrive,” Banks explained. “However, the current trends are certainly concerning.”
In recent months, the U.S. administration has implemented stricter measures affecting international students, including arrests, travel restrictions, and the revocation of legal statuses. Such actions could have a direct impact on the number of F-1 and J-1 visas being granted.
In May, the government announced plans to revoke visas for Chinese nationals with connections to the Chinese Communist Party, resulting in a 15 percent decrease in F-1 visas issued to Chinese students, equating to approximately 2,578 individuals. Additionally, the State Department temporarily halted visa interviews in late May to establish a new policy for screening international students’ social media accounts, which may have contributed to the decline in visa issuances.
Finn Reynolds, a market research expert at a legal tech startup, pointed out that while the interview pause may have played a role, it does not fully account for the overall decrease in visa issuances. The State Department does not disclose the total number of visa applications or interviews conducted, leaving room for speculation about whether the decline is due to reduced demand or slower processing times.
A recent survey indicated that interest in studying in the U.S. has reached its lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many prospective students now considering alternative English-speaking countries like the U.K. and Australia.
Moreover, the lack of daily visa issuance data complicates the understanding of the situation, as the drop in numbers could be linked to the pause in interviews during the last week of May. The overall connection remains ambiguous.
The data also highlights the impact of travel restrictions on students from specific countries. The administration’s travel bans and heightened restrictions have already led to a dramatic decline in visa issuances for affected nations, with a nearly 150 percent drop in F-1 visas and a 105 percent drop in J-1 visas.
It is important to note that the statistics do not account for students who already hold visas and are returning to their institutions. These students do not require new visas if they remain in the U.S., only needing them for international travel. Many students opted to stay in the U.S. during the summer break due to disruptions in their visa statuses.
Looking ahead, Reynolds anticipates further declines in visa issuances for the upcoming months, as the new social media vetting procedures are likely to limit appointment availability.
Students from countries such as China, Ghana, India, Japan, Niger, and Nigeria have reported significant difficulties in securing visa appointments, raising alarms among educational institutions.
“As we approach the end of July, many students are still struggling to get appointments, which is quite concerning,” Banks remarked.
Future policies may also create additional obstacles for international students seeking visas. A proposed rule could alter the duration-of-stay policies, potentially imposing fixed limits on how long students can remain in the U.S. on their visas.
“If this proposal is enacted, it could lead to further disruptions and challenges for students, making them feel unwelcome and prompting them to seek opportunities elsewhere,” Banks warned.
Anticipated Declines in Enrollment
Colleges and universities are bracing for potential declines in their international student populations. A recent study found that 40 percent of institutions expect a decrease in their undergraduate international student numbers, while 49 percent foresee a drop in graduate student enrollments.
A survey conducted by an association of international educators revealed that 78 percent of participating institutions predict declines in both undergraduate and graduate international student populations.
Each year, U.S. colleges enroll approximately 1.1 million international students, representing about 6 percent of the total student body. A recent analysis indicated that even a modest 10 percent decline in international student enrollment could result in a staggering $3 billion loss in revenue for U.S. colleges and universities, with a significant portion stemming from tuition fees.